How we count

Every number in TrendsEngine comes from games that already happened. These are the rules behind them, so you can check any number yourself.

Hit rate

A hit rate is how many of the counted games went the line's way. "7 of 10" means the player went over (or under) the line in 7 of the last 10 games. We recount it from the full game history at every daily update, and each card says when its data was updated. Last 5, last 10 and last 20 use the most recent games of that many.

The line

When a sportsbook line exists, we use it. When none exists, the line is the player's or team's own recent average, marked with ≈ and "recent avg". You can always move the line yourself, and the hit rate is recounted for your number.

Small samples

Fewer than 10 games is marked as a small sample, because a short streak can look like a pattern when it isn't. Early in a season, we show last season's games next to this season's and say which is which.

Which games count

Regular-season games from the sources named on each sport. A quarterback's receiving lines are hidden, and a stat a player has never recorded isn't shown. Home, away and versus-opponent splits count only those games.

Fair prices (Positive EV and Arbitrage)

We compare the best retail price from sportsbooks licensed in your province or state with Pinnacle's price after removing Pinnacle's margin ("de-vig"). We work out the margin two standard ways and use whichever gives the smaller edge. Any edge or money figure is rounded down, never up, so we never show more than the numbers support. Every price shows its age: after 3 hours a price that would have shown as clearing your minimum shows as pending instead, and after 26 hours it is hidden.

The full arithmetic

Worked examples for hit rates, fair prices, Positive EV, arbitrage and price age are on How we calculate.

What we don't do

We don't predict games, make picks, or say what to bet. A trend is history, not a forecast, and our "recent form" numbers in Fantasy are averages of recent games, not a model. Stats update about twice a day and prices are checked on a schedule, so nothing here is live.

Sources

NFL data: nflverse (github.com/nflverse/nflverse-data), licensed CC BY 4.0. Hit rates, averages and trends are our calculations from it.

Each other sport's source is named in the app under "Where these numbers come from".